Xem thêm

Where Ontario's Housing Market is Headed in 2024

CEO Khai Intela
The Ontario housing market experienced a significant slowdown in 2023, and experts are predicting this sluggishness to continue into early 2024. While prices have dropped slightly from their pandemic-driven highs, the combination of high-interest rates...

The Ontario housing market experienced a significant slowdown in 2023, and experts are predicting this sluggishness to continue into early 2024. While prices have dropped slightly from their pandemic-driven highs, the combination of high-interest rates and buyers waiting for further price reductions has created a slow sales market throughout the province.

Continued Stagnation in Sales

Industry experts foresee a continuation of sluggish sales volumes in the first part of 2024 unless mortgage rates decrease significantly or sellers start accepting lower bids. Ron Butler, a broker with Butler Mortgage, believes that mortgage rates won't drop quickly enough to stimulate buyers in the early part of 2024. John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Realty Inc., adds that sellers have yet to adjust their asking prices to offset the increased borrowing costs that buyers face. TD economist Rishi Sondhi predicts that sales volumes will remain relatively low in the coming year, but better than 2023.

Uncertain Price Trends

There is no consensus on what will happen with prices in the Ontario housing market. Conflicting factors, such as high mortgage rates suppressing demand and rapid population growth pushing it upward, make it challenging to predict. Real estate firm Royal LePage forecasts a six percent rise in the average home price in the Greater Toronto Area by the end of 2024 and a 4.5 percent rise in Ottawa. On the other hand, ReMax forecasts an average three percent drop in GTA prices for 2024 and a two percent increase in Ottawa. Buyer sentiment will play a significant role in price trends, as those who believe prices will come down may choose to wait and see.

New Home Construction Slowdown

The Ontario government's promise to construct 1.5 million new homes within a ten-year timeframe has faced challenges. The pace of new construction as of November 2023 was slower than the previous year, and forecasts expect a further slowdown in 2024. High interest rates, inflation impacting building material prices, and a labor crunch have hindered developers' ability to finance projects. Despite this, purpose-built rental housing is expected to grow, driven by government incentives. However, many municipalities may fail to qualify for government funding due to low housing start numbers.

Uncertainty for the Condo Sector

The condo segment of the Ontario housing market may face difficulties in 2024, particularly for investors. As mortgage renewals occur, it may become harder for investors to afford these properties. Consequently, there may be an increase in investors selling off condos due to high debt and interest rates. The Toronto Region Real Estate Board reported a significant decline in condo sales in 2023, and sales of new condos in the GTA fell even more sharply, according to a November 2023 report from Urbanation.

Home Prices in Ontario Home prices in Ontario have dropped somewhat from their pandemic-driven highs, but high interest rates and buyers waiting for further price drops have slowed the market.

Price Forecasts Real estate firms have differing forecasts for average home prices in the Greater Toronto Area and Ottawa in 2024.

New Home Construction TD economists predict a decrease in new home construction starts in 2024 following reduced sales in the pre-construction market.

Condo Sales Sales of new condos in the Greater Toronto Area experienced a significant decline in 2023, raising uncertainty for the condo sector in 2024.

In conclusion, the Ontario housing market is likely to experience continued sluggishness in sales and uncertain price trends in 2024. New home construction is expected to slow down, while the condo sector may face challenges. Buyers and sellers will need to navigate these conditions and consider the impact of mortgage rates, buyer sentiment, and population growth on the market.

1